George Maniere: How Far Can GLD Run

InvestingAdvicebyGeorge – Yesterday was a very interesting day. All of the stars were aligned for a perfect storm as Asia had sold off 3%. Europe’s market was selling off on fears of a further spread of contagion due to what they perceived would be a bad day in America and the nagging feeling that the high hopes for Greece and the other PIIGS nations would suffer the same fate In the pre-markets our markets were down showing signs that we would do the same.

As the market opened the DOW and S&P were showing signs of a collapse and gold hit a new intraday high of $1622. Silver was rallying and it looked as the market would play out as scripted. Then at about 11AM the market made an abrupt about face. There was chatter regarding Greece’s inability to pay for the restructuring of the debt, there was chatter about China’s runaway growth and ensuing problem with inflation.

While China has had a growth of 7% last year and a projected growth of 9% this year they have unsuccessfully raised the interest rates 5 times in an effort to cool down the economy. Most people do not realize the chasm between the haves and the have nots in China. In the farmlands are the very poor, uneducated people but in cities like Shanghai there are the young tech savvy professionals that are living the good life. They drive BMW’s or Mercedes go clubbing after work and have all of the mannerisms of the 2000 Wall Street professionals that lavished themselves with every comfort and plaything. The day will come in China when the haves and the have nots come to grips and my response to that will be “China, welcome to the NFL version of Capitalism.” My perception of it is that we in the West are afraid of the big bad Chinese but as the market proved today their emerging opulence is relatively new and in time will become a thorn in the side of the elder party members who wish to maintain control over the new intelligentsia. The only thing that has ever worked is a free and open society where people are free to choose their fates. Benjamin Franklin wrote in the “Historical Review of Pennsylvania in 1759 “Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.”

Sadly, I have seen our country losing these liberties as we scramble to protect our safety. But that is a subject for another essay.

I predicted yesterday that as the market sold off Gold and Silver would rally. While Gold hit an all time intraday high of $1622.90 or $157.80 on GLD, Silver managed to put in an intraday high of $41.10 and closed at $40.40 or $38.35 for SLV.  Silver has had volatile parabolic swings while Gold has acted in a healthier manner as this chart below will show.

One book that I have lived with is “Technical Analysis of stock Trends” by Edwards and McGee. Very often in this masterful text they will provide a proxy chart of a “head and shoulders” pattern for instance to demonstrate what the pattern should look like. Well if they wanted to show a proxy chart of what a healthy uptrend should look like they would have had to go no further then to show this chart of the spot price of gold. Notice how between October of 2010 and January of 2011 the stock ran up to the trend line and ran down to the 50 day moving average 4 times before settling at the bottom trend line. The RSI and the slow stochastics signaled a buy. From January 28th of 2011 until May 1st the stock moved in a slow, predictable and healthy way taking two steps up and 1 step down putting in a series of highs and lows before hitting the top trend line where the RSI and the slow stochastics predicted a sell. From the sell on May 1st until July 1st gold made the same orderly retreat and we were once again signaled by the RSI and the slow stochastics that it was time to buy again. Since that time it has continued its steady assent upward but a look at the RSI and the slow stochastics have yet to signal a sell. How far will gold run I have no idea but if we have learned anything from this little exercise it is to trust you charts, especially when they are so well defined like the Gold chart.

If we take a look at the san=me chart using the ETF GLD we will see the same patterns emerge.

In conclusion, under no circumstances should you open a position in gold here. As the study of both of these charts has shown GLD will pull back to the trend line and we will have another chance to buy in.

A look at this chart will show the same moves as the previous chart as it ran up in a slow, steady and healthy move. How far can it run? It will be fun to see.

About The Author – George has been an investor for 30+ years. When he retired in 2004, he took over the control of his investments full time. In March of 2009 he committed a sizable stake to the market and doubled his money. he sold half about a year ago and what he started with is in drips dividend reinvesting. The other half he have been a bit more speculative with, but he recently bought SLV at $26.00 in January and sold it all on April 29th for a 66% realized gain. He spends my time reading every financial classic he can get his hands on and has become a fairly good chartist.


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